Case Study
Going Inside Condon & Forsyth’s Data-Backed Victory
When Condon & Forsyth LLP took on a case involving a potential $5 million in damages exposure, the challenge wasn’t liability, but rather credibility and valuation.
The plaintiff claimed a lifelong impact from minimal injuries, supported by experts who offered inflated projections of future medical costs and lost income. Several co-plaintiffs had already settled, emboldening the remaining plaintiff to pursue unreasonable settlement demands.
The defense needed to know:
Would jurors see through the exaggeration, or would anger toward airlines and expert testimony drive the number sky-high? Traditional mock trials and focus groups couldn’t offer the statistical reliability or scale needed to answer that question with confidence.
Turning a $5 Million Exposure into a Data-Driven Win for Condon & Forsyth LLP
Problem
Would jurors see through the exaggeration, or would anger toward airlines and expert testimony drive the number sky-high? Traditional mock trials and focus groups couldn’t offer the statistical reliability or scale needed to answer that question with confidence.
Verdict Simulator partnered with Condon & Forsyth LLP to conduct a large-sample damages simulation, a data-driven alternative to conventional jury research.
Solution
Using a pool of 100 mock jurors sourced from the trial venue’s demographic region, the study measured how real people perceived the plaintiff’s claims, calculated expected damages, and analyzed the reasoning behind their judgments.
This approach delivered quantitative certainty rather than anecdotal feedback. The large sample produced statistically reliable results five times the size of a typical mock trial, while being faster, more cost-effective, and far more predictive.
From there, Verdict Simulator built juror-characteristic models identifying which traits correlated with high-damage (plaintiff-leaning) versus low-damage (defense-leaning) verdicts. This data directly informed the jury selection strategy, allowing the team to strike high-risk jurors before the trial even began.
Results
Our simulation predicted $516,000 in damages.
The actual verdict?
$505,000 (a 98% accuracy rate).
This precision gave Condon & Forsyth LLP the confidence to advise their airline client and its insurer with clarity and confidence. Armed with data that defined the actual value of the case, the defense team refused to be pressured by inflated settlement demands. When the plaintiff declined a reasonable offer and opted for trial, the defense proceeded and won.
By replacing intuition with insight, the team transformed a potential $5 million liability into a strategic victory backed by numbers.
Key Takeaways
Client: Condon & Forsyth LLP
Exposure: $5 Million Potential Damages
Predicted Damages: $516K
Actual Verdict: $505K
Accuracy: 98%
Juror Sample: 100 (5× larger than standard mock trial)
Outcome: Data-driven confidence that won the case and validated the method